But there has to be a point in which the line in the sand is drawn. I can’t disagree with the obvious logic behind that thinking. Almost 90 percent of the money wagered on the spread has been on Los Angeles. That’s because the betting public will continue to back the Rams and drive this number up.
With a trip to the Los Angeles Chargers on Halloween next up for New England, it’s hard to believe that the Patriots will put forth a full 60-minute effort against a team they already have handled with ease this season.īy the numbers: New England is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games and 2-8 ATS as a favorite.Īnalysis: If you’re going to bet on the Lions, wait until the last possible minute to place your wager. … Miami is on a 1-4 spread skid.Īnalysis: This looks like a classic letdown spot for the Patriots after they dropped a season-defining game against the Cowboys last week. In other words, the Falcons beat the bad teams while failing to cover against the better teams. The Falcons have every advantage to deliver a decisive win and cover.īy the numbers: Atlanta is 9-3 ATS against teams with a losing record and 4-1 ATS against teams with a losing home record. I would argue that it was a double bye for Atlanta when you take its home win over the lowly Jets into account. The NFL paraded the Dolphins and Jaguars out last week in London, then asked Miami to come back home, without a bye, to face a Falcons team that’s fresh off its bye week. … This is typically the time of year when Tennessee heats up, covering five of its last eight October games (5-2-1 ATS).Īnalysis: What a horrible joke the NFL is playing on the Dolphins. … The Chiefs have failed to cover four of the last five meetings. The Titans can control the ball long enough to use their own high-powered offense to outlast the Chiefs.īy the numbers: Kansas City is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games as a favorite and 4-13 ATS in its past 17 outings overall. But I can smell this Tennessee running game hitting a seasonlong crescendo with running back Derrick Henry. … The under is 8-3 after a Washington loss.Īnalysis: In the past, this might have been a spot in which I would bet against the Titans, who are fresh off an emotional win over the Bills and on a short week. Translation: When it seems too good to be true, it usually is. That’s the worst differential among qualified quarterbacks, according to Next Gen Stats.īy the numbers: Washington is 9-4 ATS after a double-digit home loss, and Green Bay is on a 2-5 spread skid when playing teams with a losing road record. There are still some questions about Green Bay’s big-play threat with Aaron Rodgers’ air yards differential at -3.
But with a “Thursday Night Football” showdown with the Cardinals up next for Green Bay, it’s hard to believe that we will see the entire Packers repertoire on display. … The over is 39-17-1 when the Panthers play on FieldTurf.Īnalysis: Uncertainty at the quarterback position continues to be a conundrum for Washington. … Carolina is on a 7-17 ATS streak against teams with a losing record. I’m not backing a team that is fresh off allowing almost 600 yards to Minnesota.īy the numbers: The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings, with the underdog winning the past four. Running back Christian McCaffrey is still on injured reserve, and quarterback Sam Darnold has turned into a turnover machine. Current form has seen Carolina lose three straight games with few paths to better results. … Cincinnati is riding a 15-5-2 under streak on the road.Īnalysis: The Panthers are a prime example of an overreaction to a 3-0 start. … The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in the last five meetings in Baltimore. Our ticket will be won or lost at the line of scrimmage where, despite a rash of injuries, the Ravens continue to run the ball well.īy the numbers: Cincinnati is on an 8-4 ATS surge when getting 4½ points or more. If they lose, questions will arise of just how good Cincinnati is. If the Bengals beat the Ravens, they will be 5-2 with a signature win. (AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)Īnalysis: Cincinnati will have its biggest defensive test to date at Baltimore in its first validation game. Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) passes against the Detroit Lions during an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct.